The big day is (finally) almost upon us! The 96th Academy Awards ceremony takes place this Sunday, March 10th, giving us another year of Oscar winners! Who will take home the gold? What upsets and surprises might we see at the ceremony? What snubs should have been nominated in their place? Let’s make our final predictions and see how we do!
Best Original Song
- “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot)
- “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)
- “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony)
- “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
WILL WIN: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie). The two Barbie songs split the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, our only real precursors for the category. I’m strongly tempted to pick the Ken number, which is the feel-good highlight of the film that had people talking long after. But it’s hard to bet against Billie Eilish, especially after she took home multiple Grammys for the song, even OUTSIDE the film-specific category. The industry clearly loves her, and although she already has an Oscar in her very-young career, the passion clearly hasn’t dwindled at all.
SHOULD WIN: “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: “Camp Isn’t Home” (Theater Camp)
Best Original Score
- American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
- Indiana Zones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
- Oppenheimer (Ludwig Goransson)
- Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer (Ludwig Goransson). The score of Oppenheimer is almost a character unto itself, imposing itself onto the narrative in every scene and almost beating the audience over the head. Whether it’s your personal favorite in the category or not, that kind of forward-facing music is exactly what the Academy tends to go for, and even though Ludwig won not too long ago for Black Panther, he has clearly done enough to take home his second Oscar for this phenomenal work.
SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer (Ludwig Goransson)
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)
Best Sound
- The Creator
- Maestro
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
- Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer. Of all the tech categories, this is the one that Oppy is most likely to lose, as The Zone of Interest took home the BAFTA in this category and features very showy work as well. However, Oppy is the far more popular film and has no shortage of phenomenal sound design work as well – that gym scene alone is some spectacular audiovisual storytelling that more than deserves the win. But either film could win and I wouldn’t be upset!
SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Society of the Snow
Best Film Editing
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer. The editing of the film is extremely showy and pivotal to the functioning of the film, with the non-linear storytelling and frequent switches between color and black-and-white making this no doubt a nightmare of a job for Jennifer Lame to put together. This is only her second film collab with director Christopher Nolan, and I could see her returning to awards attention for future team-ups if the quality is there like for this one!
SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: The Zone of Interest
Best Cinematography
- El Conde
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer. Hoyte von Hoytema has never won an Oscar before, and he has done more than enough to win for this film. They had to invent a brand-new type of film stock to shoot in IMAX 70mm black-and-white, and every shot is crisp and sharp, giving us ample eye candy even in dry scenes of exposition. None of the major precursors have disagreed, and I can’t imagine him losing at this point.
SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
- The Creator
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
- Napoleon
WILL WIN: The Creator. I have NO idea what’s gonna happen in this category! Why couldn’t Dune: Part Two have just stayed in this year and made this easy?? I could literally see any of these five win and not be surprised in the slightest. None of the precursors helped us very much: Oppenheimer won CCA and Poor Things won BAFTA, neither of which are nominated here. The only real hint we have is the Visual Effects Society Awards, where The Creator swept all four categories it was nominated in, so I’ll default to that for now. I’d also keep an eye on Mission: Impossible, which recently took home a SAG Stunt Ensemble win, and Godzilla Minus One, whose director is nominated and has a great populist narrative behind it! Or will they go for the war film (Napoleon) or the MCU for once (Guardians)?? Literally throw a dart at a board and you’ll have an equal chance at being right either way!
SHOULD WIN: The Creator
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Oppenheimer
Best Production Design
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
WILL WIN: Barbie. This is an incredibly tight race between Barbie and Poor Things, both of which feature extremely showy and impressive set design work. Barbie won at Critics’ Choice, Poor Things won at BAFTA, and both won at the Art Designers Guild in separate categories, so it is truly a toss-up! I still believe this year will be similar to 2018 in which we have a flashy, zeitgeisty display of world-building from a familiar property (Barbie, Black Panther) versus a more prestige-y period piece that’s also a critical darling (Poor Things, The Favourite). There is a world where Barbie goes home with only an Original Song win, but I still think it has enough passion to win here.
SHOULD WIN: Barbie
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Asteroid City
Best Costume Design
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
WILL WIN: Barbie. Once again, BAFTA went with Poor Things, but I feel even better about Barbie taking this one. Its costumes pop off the screen with some iconic get-ups for both Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, not to mention the supporting cast. The narrative of how they emulated dozens and dozens of actual Barbie-doll costumes should also benefit them, and Jacqueline Duran is a branch favorite who has already won for a Greta Gerwig film recently (Little Women). I’d give this a 70-30 advantage over Poor Things at the moment, but both still have a chance!
SHOULD WIN: Barbie
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: The Color Purple
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
- Golda
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Society of the Snow
WILL WIN: Maestro. We’ve been operating under the assumption that this film would win for months, although BAFTA threw a wrench in things by awarding Poor Things instead. That isn’t the end-all be-all, however; they awarded Elvis last year over eventual Oscar winner The Whale, so it’s very possible (and likely) that they just liked Poor Things more overall. (Remember when they chose The Favourite over Vice?) Even if you don’t like Maestro as a film (I certainly didn’t), you can’t deny the incredible transformative work the makeup team did for Bradley Cooper’s face, and I think that will prevail.
SHOULD WIN: Maestro
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Barbie
Best Documentary Feature
- 20 Days in Mariupol
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President
- The Eternal Memory
- Four Daughters
- To Kill a Tiger
WILL WIN: 20 Days in Mariupol. There were concerns that voters wouldn’t want to go for a Russia-centric doc two years in a row, but Putin has remained prevalent in the news in the past few weeks, especially after the sham Tucker Carlson interview and the “accidental” death of Alexei Navalny in prison. The Israel-Gaza conflict also means that civilian casualties in war zones are fresh in people’s minds, and this hits that beat hard with distressing imagery and highlights the importance of journalists to expose war crimes. I don’t even know what would take this award if not for Mariupol!
SHOULD WIN: 20 Days in Mariupol
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Beyond Utopia
Best Animated Feature
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Robot Dreams
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
WILL WIN: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. As I suspected from the outset, we have a fairly close race between Spidey and The Boy and the Heron. Spider-Verse won at CCA, PGA and swept the Annie’s, while Heron won at Globe and BAFTA. It’s noteworthy that the two places Miyazaki’s film won have more of an international slant to them, as I could see those voting bodies not responding as easily to Miles Morales’ American-specific story. I suspect AMPAS will lean towards the more popular film overall, and the one with a story they more typically go for. But either could win and I wouldn’t be totally shocked!
SHOULD WIN: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Best International Feature
- Io Capitano (Italy)
- Perfect Days (Japan)
- Society of the Snow (Spain)
- The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
- The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
WILL WIN: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom). In four of the past five years, we’ve had a Best Picture nominee show up in this category, and it won all four of those times. It would have been an interesting race if fellow Picture nod Anatomy of a Fall had been eligible and nominated here, but that was the case at BAFTA and Zone still won there, so this is a fairly easy lock.
SHOULD WIN: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Anatomy of a Fall (France)
Best Original Screenplay
- Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet & Arthur Harari)
- The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
- Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
- May December (Samy Burch)
- Past Lives (Celine Song)
WILL WIN: Anatomy of a Fall. This is a close race between Anatomy and The Holdovers, both of which are coming on strong as of late. Anatomy won at Globe and BAFTA, losing only at CCA to Barbie which isn’t eligible for this category at the Oscars. Holdovers hasn’t won anything major yet, but notice that Anatomy won at two primarily-international voting bodies and we haven’t seen what a predominantly-American body will side with yet, and they might go for the more crowd-pleasing American film. But it’s clear that Anatomy has a lot of fans right now; Snoop the border collie has been the star of every nominee function and the film has been overperforming with nominations ever since the guilds and AMPAS started weighing in. And considering Holdovers already has a guaranteed win in Supporting Actress while this doesn’t have any other real winning prospects, I’m siding with Anatomy here.
SHOULD WIN: Anatomy of a Fall
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: The Iron Claw
Best Adapted Screenplay
- American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
- Barbie (Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach)
- Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
- Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
- The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
WILL WIN: American Fiction. This was looking like a fascinating 4-way race where I could see any of the above (besides maybe Zone) taking this award home. But then BAFTA went for American Fiction, which was the LAST thing I expected them to do! They don’t typically like American-specific stories in the writing categories, much less black American stories, and yet they still chose to reward this one over a bunch of Picture nominees. That is a HUGE sign of confidence in the film that makes this category feel fairly easy to predict now. I could still see a world where Oppy just picks this award up en route to a mega-sweep, but that’s an unlikely possibility I’m not willing to bet on right now.
SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Supporting Actor
- Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
- Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
- Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
- Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
WILL WIN: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer). Both supporting categories are over and done: Downey has won at every precursor, has a great veteran narrative going for him, and is just clearly someone the Academy wants to see win an Oscar. He’ll give one of the funniest speeches to kick off the night, and everyone will be happy about it!
SHOULD WIN: Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Charles Melton (May December)
Best Supporting Actress
- Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
- Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
- America Ferrera (Barbie)
- Jodie Foster (Nyad)
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
WILL WIN: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). As with Downey, she has won everything (INCLUDING the critics’ awards) and has no real competition to take the gold. Emily Blunt might have given her a run for her money if she’d managed to win at BAFTA and SAG, but couldn’t manage either. It’s also likely to be The Holdovers‘ only victory on the evening, making it all the more likely that she prevails. Don’t bet against her!
SHOULD WIN: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Julianne Moore (May December)
Best Actor
- Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
- Colman Domingo (Rustin)
- Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
- Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
- Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
WILL WIN: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer). Sorry to the Paul Giamatti truthers, but aside from Critics’ Choice, he simply hasn’t been able to prevail over Cillian at any major precursor. The fact that Murphy is in the Best Picture sweeper also benefits him; I just can’t see a world where Oppenheimer sweeps all the big awards EXCEPT for the title character himself. He’s definitely coming along for the ride!
SHOULD WIN: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
Best Actress
- Annette Bening (Nyad)
- Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
- Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
- Emma Stone (Poor Things)
WILL WIN: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). This is by far the most difficult acting category to predict, as Gladstone has Globe and SAG vs. Emma Stone’s Globe, CCA and BAFTA. I do find it VERY significant that Lily won at SAG, not only because it’s the most recent precursor but because that voting body tends to go for more showy, populist films. Gladstone’s performance is more subtle and subdued than Stone’s, so the fact that fellow ACTORS went for her performance should be a very strong sign of broad support for her. I also think voters will be incentivized to not let another Scorsese film go home empty-handed with double-digit nominations, and she’ll be the lone winning representative for the film.
SHOULD WIN: Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One)
Best Director
- Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
- Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
- Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
- Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
WILL WIN: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer). Over, done, goodnight…the easiest category of the ceremony to predict. Even if there was some kind of disaster outcome where Oppenheimer started losing every single other award, Nolan would still take home the gold. It’s just his time.
SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
Best Picture
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer. We’ve been overdue for a Best Picture sweeper after a decade of relative chaos! It’s the movie event of the year, a billion-dollar biopic that has both prestige and populist appeal. It has all the ingredients needed for a winner, has swept the major precursors, and is going to take home the most Oscars of any film in at least 15 years.
SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
SHOULD’VE BEEN THERE: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BONUS: Short categories
As usual, I’ve seen none of the shorts, but here are my winner picks anyway:
- LIVE ACTION: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
- ANIMATED: War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
- DOCUMENTARY: The Last Repair Shop
Multiple win totals:
- Oppenheimer: 8 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supp. Actor, Cine, Edit, Sound, Score)
- Barbie: 3 (Prod. Design, Costumes, Song)
Conclusion
Do you agree with my picks? What dark horses are you rooting for? What major upsets are you expecting? Let me know below!
All image rights belong to AMPAS and the films’ respective distributors.
-Austin Daniel
Scriptophile 