The 96th Academy Awards wrapped up last weekend, with Oppenheimer taking home most of the major awards! The big question on every pundit’s mind now is, what will take home the gold at NEXT year’s Oscar ceremony? Let’s jump in and talk about the 97th Academy Awards in a year’s time!
Best Picture
- The Apprentice
- Blitz
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Joker: Folie a Deux
- The Nickel Boys
- The Piano Lesson
- Sing Sing
- The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat **WINNER**
- The Way of the Wind
Alt: Kinds of Kindness, Horizon: An America Saga, Hit Man, Megalopolis, Wicked, Didi
Every year I try to look primarily at what the major studios have slated to try and gauge what their biggest awards prospects are. This year is a tricky one to assess because of the strikes creating a dearth of content in the next calendar year, but these feel like the biggest priorities are for the studios we tend to see at the Oscars every year. I also wanted to leave one slot open for an international contender, and while that will likely come out of Cannes or Venice later this year, I’m currently using Terrence Malick’s The Way of the Wind as a placeholder for that slot. If the long-gestating film does indeed come out this year I can see it having massive appeal with the international branch of the Academy, which has proven to have massive sway in recent ceremonies.
Best Director
- Edward Berger (Conclave)
- Tina Mabry (The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat)
- Terrence Malick (The Way of the Wind)
- Steve McQueen (Blitz)
- Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) **WINNER**
Alt: Francis Ford Coppola (Megalopolis), Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Ali Abbasi (The Apprentice), Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga)
Once again, Terrence Malick occupies the “international” slot we know we’ll get here, and he is joined by the four biggest Picture contenders as I see it at this early stage. It wouldn’t shock me if Denis Villeneuve is snubbed again after missing for the first Dune, but I do think the second film will get a better reception from the Academy and perform better as an above-the-line contender, hence why I have him winning right now. Edward Berger could have posed a threat to the Daniels in 2022 if he’d been nominated and could definitely get in this time around with his latest papal thriller; Steve McQueen has a WWII flick that is sure to draw plenty of attention; and Tina Mabry directs my current Best Picture winner prediction, so she is in for now. But this is an extremely fluid and difficult-to-predict category this year that I could see going any number of ways!
Best Actor
- Daniel Craig (Queer)
- Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) **WINNER**
- Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
- Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie a Deux)
- Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Alt: David Strathairn (A Little Prayer), Geza Rohrig (The Way of the Wind), Timothee Chalamet (Dune: Part Two), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Adam Driver (Megalopolis)
Colman Domingo had a solid year last year with Rustin, but could wind up having an even BIGGER year in the coming awards season with Sing Sing. It’s a show-stopping role that is sure to perform better than Rustin did, making him a legitimate threat to win. I also have my eye on Sebastian Stan as a possible winner for the Trump biopic, as he also has an acclaimed role in A Different Man that will signal-boost him for this role. Joaquin reprises his Oscar-winning Joker role from five years ago, while Daniel Craig and Ralph Fiennes also have potentially baity roles to draw voters’ attention.
Best Actress
- Uzo Aduba (The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat)
- Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie a Deux)
- Angelina Jolie (Maria)
- Saoirse Ronan (Blitz) **WINNER**
- Kerry Washington (Six Triple Eight)
Alt: Emma Stone (Kinds of Kindness), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: Part One), Marisa Abela (Back to Black), Nicole Kidman (Holland, Michigan), Ryan Destiny (Flint Strong)
The Actress category tends to have less of a correlation to Best Picture (see: Annette Bening last year), so we could see people like Angelina Jolie or Jessica Lange get in as lone nominees (assuming the latter’s film comes out this year). But similar to Sebastian Stan, Saoirse Ronan has two high-profile performances to hang her hat on this year between Blitz and The Outrun, both of which could contribute to her latest nomination and perhaps even a win. She’s been an Academy darling for a while now and could finally have found a role they’ll be willing to give her the trophy for, and it would be well-deserved. Or could Lady Gaga crash the party as Harley Quinn and take gold for another showy and zeitgeist-y role?
Best Supporting Actor
- Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
- Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) **WINNER**
- John Lithgow (Conclave)
- Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
- Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
Alt: Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Mark Rylance (The Way of the Wind), Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two), Paul Raci (Sing Sing), Matthew Macfadyen (Holland, Michigan)
It might be a bit of a hope-diction, but I would LOVE to see a Succession reunion between Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong here after they both competed for Best Actor at the Emmys last season! Neither has an Oscar nomination to their name yet, and I’d love to see them have their breakout moment on the silver screen. At this stage of the race, it feels like Samuel L. Jackson’s Oscar to lose; he has the perfect veteran narrative for his first competitive win and appears in a baity role that has won plenty of awards on Broadway in the past. His win would be seen as similar to RDJ’s last year as a longtime beloved mainstrem actor proving his dramatic chops in a subtler role.
Best Supporting Actress
- Maria Bakalova (The Apprentice)
- Joan Chen (Didi)
- Aunjanue Ellis (The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat) **WINNER**
- Sanaa Lathan (The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat)
- Rebecca Ferguson (Dune: Part Two)
Alt: Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zendaya (Dune: Part Two), Toni Collette (Juror No. 2), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Susan Sarandon (Six Triple Eight)
Perhaps it’s recently bias (and the lack of competition this early in the year), but I do think Rebecca Ferguson has an outside shot at getting in for her work in the latest Dune film. Of all the actors in that film, she gives the most nuanced and impactful performance, and has a decent narrative behind her as a rising star-slash-veteran that has been overlooked awards-wise. Meanwhile, if Supremes turns out to be as strong as I suspect it to be, I can see it being a prime vehicle for Aunjanue Ellis to earn her first Oscar. She’s been in the mix recently for films like King Richard and Origin but never entered the winning conversation, but this film could change that.
Best Original Screenplay
- The Apprentice
- Didi
- Hit Man
- A Real Pain
- Sing Sing **WINNER**
Alt: Blitz, Megalopolis, The Way of the Wind, Holland, Michigan, Kinds of Kindness
This feels like a difficult category to predict this year, as with last year, because most of the higher-profile awards prospects are based on existing IP and therefore over in Adapted. That could mean that we see a film or two slip in here without getting into any other above-the-line category, such as Hit Man and Didi, two smaller films with strong word-of-mouth that may be a little TOO small to get into Picture. But the winner will surely be a Picture nominee, and I can see Sing Sing or The Apprentice being prime candidates to take the gold. But of course it will depend heavily on the way the race goes and which film(s) emerge as frontrunners, so we’ll have to wait and see on that front!
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- The Nickel Boys
- The Piano Lesson
- The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat **WINNER**
Alt: Queer, Nosferatu, Joker: Folie a Deux, Six Triple Eight, Gladiator 2
I suppose I should take a minute to talk about my predicted Best Picture and Screenplay winner here! The Supremes is based on a book about three middle-aged black women and lifelong friends who are each undergoing personal hardships and find kinship and comfort in one another. I’m vaguely familiar with the novel the script is based on, and it sounds like the kind of feel-good story of sisterhood in the face of adversity that could prove to be catnip for voters. The script was co-written by Gina Prince-Blythewood of The Woman King fame, and the Academy could rectify their egregious snub of her last film with a victory here.
Conclusion
What is your Best Picture pick at this early stage? What films and performances are you rooting for and hope to break out later this year? What surprise upset wins/losses could we see?
All image rights belong to AMPAS and the films’ respective distributors.
-Austin Daniel
Scriptophile 