This morning, the Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations for the upcoming awards ceremony, and there is a LOT to unpack. Who/what are the big winners and losers from the announcement?
WINNER: A Star is Born
Some insiders thought there was a chance that Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga would get their nominations but the film would be shut out elsewhere. But not only did Sam Elliott get in for Supporting Actor, rectifying his Golden Globes snub, but the film also got Best Ensemble, often seen as crucial for Best Picture chances. Not only that, but basically all of the film’s major competitors – Green Book, The Favourite, Roma, Vice, and Beale Street – did not get an Ensemble nomination. If statistics are to believed, that should make A Star is Born a runaway favorite for the Best Picture Oscar.
WINNER: Bohemian Rhapsody
Before the nomination season began, many thought Rami Malek had a slight chance at Best Actor noms but the film itself had no chance anywhere else. Well, not only has Rami been nominated at all the key awards shows, and not only did the film get a Best Picture Drama nom at the Golden Globes, but the film surprised with an Ensemble nomination at SAG! This is a huge bump for the film and could open a path for a Best Picture Oscar nomination, despite critics not going wild for the film.
WINNER: BlacKkKlansman
Spike Lee’s joint continues to overperform. John David Washington and Adam Driver both got acting nominations, AND the film got Best Ensemble, a fascinating upset. This should solidify the film’s place in the Best Picture race, and might even be a sign that it could upset as a winner if enough people are this enamored with it.
WINNER: Black Panther
The film only got Best Ensemble, but that’s huge for the film’s Best Picture chances. After overperforming here, the Golden Globes, AND the Critics’ Choice Awards, I’d say a Best Picture nomination is all but assured. The precursors are all there; now it just depends on how disdainful the Academy is about a superhero film popping up in its most prestigious category.
WINNER: Emily Blunt
Emily Blunt has continued her Best Actress run as Mary Poppins, earning an expected nomination there, but also curiously snuck into Best Supporting Actress for A Quiet Place, of all things! That’s a big curveball in a Supporting Actress category that was previously considered set in stone, as she bumped another actress that many believed had her spot locked up (but more on that later).
NEUTRAL: Green Book
Like Vice, Green Book got their two acting noms but missed out on Ensemble. Unlike Vice, however, I don’t believe this impacts the film’s Best Picture chances much, simply because it isn’t an ensemble film. Whereas Vice puts the talents of multiple actors on display, Green Book is a more contained story about two people with a bunch of minor characters drifting in and out. It’s comparable to La La Land missing out on Ensemble two years ago, and yes, even though La La Land lost Best Picture, it was still considered a frontrunner all throughout awards season. Plus, The Shape of Water missed out on Ensemble last year and still won it all. So I don’t believe the snub hurts the film too badly.
LOSER: A24
Once the awards season darlings, distributor A24 has had a rough 2018. They basically had three dogs in the fight this year: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade), and Toni Collette (Hereditary). None of the three films were recognized at all at SAG, which severely hurts all of the films involved. It seems the best bet A24 has of not getting shut out of the Oscars completely is in the Best Original Screenplay category, so I hope for their sake they have a campaign for Paul Schrader or Bo Burnham ready to go.
LOSER: Vice
Christian Bale and Amy Adams got their expected nominations, but Sam Rockwell missed out on Supporting Actor and, more crucially, no Best Ensemble nod. Adam McKay’s previous effort, The Big Short, got the Ensemble nod that propelled it to Best Picture aspirations later in the season, and this is a very similar film (and cast!) that many thought was sure to make it in. The snub(s) hurt the film’s chances slightly, certainly in the supporting actor race, but possibly in Best Picture as well.
LOSER: If Beale Street Could Talk
Not a single nomination in sight for Barry Jenkins’ project. Regina King was the big surprise, getting bumped from Supporting Actress despite many believing her to be the runaway favorite to win. That makes the Supporting Actress race that much more unpredictable and will be interesting to watch over the course of awards season. It could also spell trouble for the film’s Best Picture nomination chances, as it has commonly been thought of as a second-tier picture compared to the frontrunners.
LOSER: Widows / First Man
This was the final chance for both of these films to earn a key nomination or two to give them a chance at the Oscars, but both were shut out. Since there were already considered fringe candidates for Best Picture, this should close the door completely on their chances at major nominations this February.
LOSER: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Yeah yeah, I know the film didn’t have much chance at major Oscar nominations after its absence at so many precursor awards shows, but I thought there was a chance at Best Ensemble considering the wide breadth of performances. None of the actors get enough screen time for an individual nomination, but I thought as a whole there was a shot. Without that, you can kiss that film goodbye for the Oscars, unless it sneaks into Original Screenplay somehow.
LOSER: The Favourite
This is the most curious snub of them all for me. The film got its expected three acting noms for Colman, Weisz, and Stone…but did NOT get Ensemble! If ever there was a film I expected to be there, it would be this one…the film that exists almost solely as an acting showcase. Without the Ensemble nomination, the film will surely still get its expected Best Picture nomination, but its path to victory just got a lot more difficult.
Conclusion
It’s been a wild and unpredictable awards season so far…and that’s a good thing! Last year all of the major categories were basically solidified from day one, which led to a boring Oscars ceremony as there was no tension to be found. This year, basically every category is up for grabs, and there are sure to be some high-profile snubs when the final nomination list comes out next month. I’m excited to see what transpires, and I’ll have to think long and hard about my final predictions when the time comes.
-Austin Daniel
All image rights belong to their respective distributors.
Thanks for reading! Tonight I finally get to see The Favourite in theaters, so watch out for a review tomorrow morning at the latest. In the meantime, check out the home page for more reviews and awards season analysis like this one!
Scriptophile 
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