The Golden Globe Awards are this Sunday, the first stop on a long awards season that will determine how all the major Oscar races will play out. Who’s ahead in each category? Who will win?
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
- Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
- Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell, Vice
This is a very competitive race and has been since the first pundits began predicting likely candidates. Chalamet was a frontrunner for a while until Green Book came out and Ali began leading the pack, but now Richard E. Grant is making a late surge and pundits are starting to sway towards him. Considering the love the HFPA gave Green Book with its ample nominations, I suspect Mahershala takes it down. Plus, they might want to make amends for passing him over as Best Supporting Actor two years ago for Moonlight.
My Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Claire Foy, First Man
- Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone, The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
This is by far the most exciting race of them all to watch. There is no clear frontrunner, and just about any one of these ladies (save maybe Claire Foy) could win and I wouldn’t be surprised. My inclination having seen all of these films would be to give it to one of the ladies of The Favourite, but they are sure to steal votes from one another because they were both so good. Ironically, having both of them in the category hurts both of their chances! So between Amy Adams and Regina King, I imagine Regina is rewarded here; Adams has won multiple Golden Globes already so they won’t feel as bad about it, and King gets the more explosive material in Beale Street.
My Prediction: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Screenplay
I believe this is a two-man race between the quirky and outrageous The Favourite and the intimate and personal Roma. It is entirely possible that voters decide to reward Alfonso Cuaron somewhere other than Best Director, but I doubt it, especially given that he’s a surefire lock to win Best Foreign Film. And clearly they loved The Favourite, nominating it everywhere they could besides Best Director, so since the screenplay is its strongest asset I predict a win here at the very least.
My Prediction: The Favourite
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
- Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
- John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
This was always a two-man race between Christian Bale and Viggo Mortensen, who will likely be the frontrunners for Best Leading Actor at the Oscars as well. I’m curious who the HFPA will choose: the well-esteemed-but-not-yet-awarded veteran Mortensen, who shares duties with Mahershala Ali in carrying his film, or Christian Bale, the chameleon who single-handedly carries a hot mess of a film on his back. I think given the performances by themselves, Bale will triumph, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the HFPA repsonds to the newfound polarizing reaction to Vice and shuts it out of major contention. Green Book is the safe choice in all categories after all.
My Prediction: Christian Bale, Vice
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
- Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
- Olivia Colman, The Favourite
- Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
- Charlize Theron, Tully
- Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
I expected that Olivia Colman would run away with this one, but there is also a lot of support behind Emily Blunt for her turn as the iconic British nanny. I don’t think she has enough legs to get her into the lead yet, but it depends on how smitten the HFPA is with the film as a whole since it did perform rather well. I’d also keep an eye on Elsie Fisher as a dark horse as she’s continued to draw good notices, and maybe with Gaga/Close out of the way she could steal a big award early in the season and boost her Oscar chances. But for now I’m sticking with the Queen.
My Prediction: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Best Actor – Drama
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
- Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
You heard it here first, folks: I’m predicting an upset! Although Cooper and A Star is Born is the apparent darling of awards season this season, Rami Malek has earned nothing but wild acclaim for his transformative performance as Freddy Mercury. He’s a two-time Golden Globe nominee for Mr. Robot, so it’s clear the HFPA loves him, and they may be looking to reward him with his first Globe for his body of work and breakout performance. Cooper is certainly the frontrunner, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for betting on him, but I just have a feeling that Malek is going to be a thorn in his side all season long and this will just be the first of several upsets in the category.
My Prediction: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress – Drama
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
- Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Rosamund Pike, A Private War
While I suspect Glenn Close will have a solid awards season haul, this is not the show where she’ll do well against the pop star. The HFPA has infamously chosen glitz and glamour over veteran skill in the past, and they’ll be foaming at the mouth to get Lady Gaga on stage and set Twitter abuzz. It’s no-contest in my opinion, and if Gaga can’t win here of all places, she’ll have serious trouble down the road.
My Prediction: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Best Director
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
- Peter Farrelly, Green Book
- Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
- Adam McKay, Vice
While several directors will rotate in and out of the list of five this awards season, only three names remain a constant: Bradley Cooper, Spike Lee, and Alfonso Cuaron. You have the breakout star making his triumphant debut, the beloved veteran finally getting his due, and the technical maestro blessing us with yet another visual masterpiece. It’s obviously too early to tell, but I have a feeling we’re gonna have a runaway favorite all season long in Alfonso Cuaron. The past two years have been similar (Del Toro and Chazelle), with one director sweeping the major awards, and if ever there was a film deserving of such visual attention, it’s his Roma.
My Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
- Crazy Rich Asians
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Vice
At first I believed this to be a three-way race between The Favourite, Vice, and Green Book, but I no longer believe Vice has real legs to win. It’s simply too polarizing to earn enough first-place votes, even among those who enjoyed the movie. So it becomes a toss-up between the safe, generally-well-liked fare (Green Book) or the radical, risk-taking The Favourite. Neither would shock me, and I would love to see The Favourite take it down, but I have a feeling that Green Book is a frontrunner for not only this prize, but the Best Picture race for every major awards show this season. This could be just the first stop on its two-month victory lap.
My Prediction: Green Book
Best Picture – Drama
A Star is Born is the clear frontrunner, but keep an eye on Black Panther. The HFPA has been good in the past about keeping an ear to the ground and gauging public opinion, so they might listen to the social media surge of support for the Marvel giant and reward it with a big win. While it’s not unreasonable to see it happening, the smart money’s still on Cooper’s musical debut, which has all the fixings of a long-term awards season winner.
My Prediction: A Star is Born
Conclusion
What do you think will be victorious this Sunday night? Will there be any major upsets? What films/performers are you rooting for?
-Austin Daniel
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Scriptophile 
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