We’re inching closer to the heart of awards season, and as more and more big titles are released and early precursors announce their nominations, we have a clearer picture of what will be present at the 92nd Academy Awards. What films have moved up or down the power rankings since last month? Let’s dive in!
View the October power rankings here!
1. The Irishman (+1)
Despite so many factors working against Scorsese’s new film (the absurd runtime, the de-aging technology debacle, the Netflix backlash), the crime epic has drawn consistent raves as it expands across the nation. Even though Scorsese has won big in the past with The Departed, there are many out there who believe he should have two or three Best Picture wins already and want to right that wrong with his new masterpiece. I haven’t heard of anybody who did not at least like that film, and unless some controversy emerges in the next two months, I can see this going all the way this awards season, even in such a diverse and talented year.
2. Marriage Story (+2)
The film just began showing in theaters recently, and will debut on Netflix in just two short weeks. The buzz is only just beginning to grow, so unlike the two films following it on this list, it will likely dominate the conversation leading into December. It performed well with the Gotham Awards and FISA nominations…not necessarily the most indicative of Oscar success, but a good sign that even the offbeat awards shows are recognizing Noah Baumbach for his best film to date. It has just about everything a film could ever need to secure big nominations: marquee leading performances, support from the acting branch, critical acclaim, and a strong narrative for a filmmaker (Baumbach) whom many will want to reward for his long and successful career. I am a bit nervous about having two Netflix films in my top spots, but regardless of distributor, this and The Irishman are the clear frontrunners at the moment.
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-2)
I still have Tarantino & Co. earning major nominations, but the downside of a summer release is, obviously, the conversation shifts away from your film towards newer and flashier releases in the fall/winter. Some of the shine has also come off of Tarantino’s comeback narrative; he and Scorsese occupy a similar space as long-respected directors destined for immortality looking for awards validation for their careers. Maybe the fact that Scorsese already has a directing Oscar helps Tarantino, or the fact that QT has two writing awards already hurts his narrative. Who knows? Regardless, the film will be around…it’s just not the frontrunner anymore.
4. Parasite (-1)
Is the conversation finally cooling on Parasite? The film has dominated the conversation for nearly half a year ever since its triumphant Cannes debut, but now the field is crowded with more and more quality films and it isn’t the only prestige film on the market. Its NA theatrical run is going strong so far, but it seems everyone who wanted to see it has seen it and is now preoccupied with flashier toys (like Once Upon a Time). Will it flame out too early? Probably not, but the hype has definitely cooled and I’ll be interested to see where voters land on the film come February.
5. Jojo Rabbit (no change)
Jojo remains at the lower end of my “serious contenders” tier. Its box office numbers have not exactly been spectacular, barely recovering its budget so far, and controversy still remains regarding its handling of Nazis. There is no shortage of people-pleasers this year, so it isn’t even like Jojo does something no other film in contention does to set it apart. I still see Waititi getting some love (he’s my pick for Adapted Screenplay winner at the moment), but a Best Picture nomination is far from guaranteed Still likely, but less secure than it once was.
6. Joker (+3)
Not only did Joker cross the $1 billion-mark recently (cementing it as the blockbuster representative of the year), it has done well in the early guild awards (makeup & hairstyling, cinematography, etc.), indicating broad industry support for the film. We already knew the acting branch would be on board for Joaquin’s performance, so to see other aspects of the film recognized is a great sign for its Best Picture chances. It will also be the rare film to benefit from an earlier release, since removing the film from its toxic release environment will help keep the conversation positive for voting season. Sure, maybe the thinkpieces pick up again in a month or two, but they couldn’t kill the film’s momentum before and they almost certainly can’t now.
7. 1917 (no change)
The film finally screened for the first time last weekend, and as expected, it is a technical juggernaut. It will do very well in below-the-line categories, catapulting to frontrunner status in the Cinematography, Score, and Sound categories (and possibly more). I’ve long predicted this to be a Dunkirk-style nominee, making it into BP with just Director and BTL nominations, and I stand by that assessment. Granted, it’s still early and initial screening reactions can’t always be trusted, but given that my lofty expectations have yet to be challenged, I’m still comfortable keeping it in my lineup.
8. Ford v Ferrari (+4)
I said last month that the film needed a big box office turnout to have a chance, and boy did it deliver with an overperforming #1 opening and an A+ audience score! It’s an old-school-style biopic that will appeal to older voters, with enough high-octane action to please younger voters as well. It’ll have support from the acting branch (who doesn’t love Damon and Bale?) and the box office haul will justify people who enjoyed the film to vote for it. Can it contend for wins? I’m inclined to say no, but the people who like this film really like it, so who knows?
9. Bombshell (-3)
Early screenings were positive, though those were SAG screenings and the film is catnip for acting nominations. There is some concern among liberal voters with a film that holds up Megyn Kelly and other Fox News pundits as heroes, which might hurt it in the long run. Its actresses will likely do fairly well this season, but a Best Picture nomination looks less likely than it once did. It will depend heavily on the film’s critical and commercial performance this Christmas, and it’s looking like a pretty crowded season this year, so it’s far from a guarantee this can make it in.
10. Little Women (-2)
Early screening reactions are solid but muted, which is not what you want to hear for a film that badly needs to start generating hype. It remains to be seen if it can perform well with audiences this Christmas, or if it can distinguish itself enough from past adaptations of the novel to earn major awards attention. Sony will undoubtedly be focusing on Tarantino’s campaign this winter, and they also have A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Pain and Glory to worry about, meaning their resources may be spread too thin. Greta Gerwig is a fresh Academy face they’ll want to reward, but they can do so in Adapted Screenplay and the acting races without necessarily feeling compelled to throw this into the top category of the evening.
11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-1)
The Fred Rogers biopic doesn’t really tread on the toes of any other BP contenders, but it’s such a crowded year that I don’t know if a by-the-numbers biopic can make the cut. There are plenty of people still sour about the snub of the Mister Rogers documentary last year, so that swell of popular sentiment towards the man (and Tom Hanks) could propel it into the conversation nonetheless. Its opening box office numbers are solid but not great, and if it fails to really enrapture audiences it may be forgotten by the end of its awards run.
12. The Farewell (+3)
I’m still not sold on the film’s Best Picture chances, but I definitely didn’t expect the conversation to still be happening this late in the year. Awkwafina and Zhao Shuzhen continue to float around in the Best Lead/Supporting Actress conversation, thanks to a much more open field compared to their male counterparts. The film has also performed well at the precursors like FISA and Gotham…again, not necessarily strong indicators of further success, but a sign that people are still talking about the film and rooting for its success. Will the Academy feel the same way? We’ll have to wait and see.
13. Avengers: Endgame (+3)
As expected, Disney is pulling out all the stops for the biggest box office draw of all time. In a humorous new development, they’ve been rolling out FYC ads that paint the film as a serious drama rather than a fantasy-adventure flick. Will that strategy move some Academy members, or will they be laughed out of the room? Right now I’m leaning towards the latter, but given the massive money behind this film and the Academy’s recent push towards populism I’m not willing to count its chances out just yet.
14. The Two Popes (-4)
In a vacuum this film would be much higher on the list, but we don’t live in a vacuum. We live in a world where The Irishman and Marriage Story are legitimate contenders for a BP win, not just a nomination, and if Netflix is smart they will devote all of their attention and resources towards those two. I have a bad feeling that this film will be completely passed over come February, but based on quality alone, it’s definitely not out of the picture yet.
15. Knives Out (+4)
This film continues to outperform everyone’s expectations, as what I presumed to be a case of festival fever turned out to be legitimate acclaim. It’s a genre film, sure, but one with a message that AMPAS has surprisingly responded warmly towards. We always talk about the shifting demographics of the Academy and how it might impact future ceremonies, and this is the kind of film that stands to benefit from the influx of younger voters and a greater diversity of members. It’s far more likely to make noise in the acting and writing categories, but if it overperforms there and does decently at the box office this weekend, Best Picture is not out of reach.
16. Pain and Glory (-3)
Almodovar’s latest film continues to slip in the rankings, at least where the top category of the night is concerned. It came and went in the box office with little fanfare, and it continues to get dominated by other films in the conversation. But there are very few non-American filmmakers who consistently earn recognition from the Academy, and Almodovar is one of them, with two competitive Oscars to his name and several more nominations under his belt. I can definitely see Actor and Screenplay nominations for this film, and if it manages to get both, Picture is not out of the question.
17. Honey Boy (NR)
Amazon Studios is one of the wealthiest distributors in the world with the means to throw money at big campaigns, but their awards slate this year is pretty thin. That’s good news for Honey Boy, which will have Amazon’s full attention when it comes to marketing and FYC campaigns. There is already a solid comeback narrative for Shia LaBeouf as a writer or perhaps supporting actor in the film, and if he can make enough noise there, maaaybe the film has a shot at Best Picture. If this wasn’t an Amazon product I’d say no way, but money and power can get you far in Hollywood.
18. Richard Jewell (NR)
I’m always skeptical when people say Clint Eastwood has made a good film, because in my mind he hasn’t made a competent movie in over a decade. I HATED The Mule last year, another film people assumed would have awards legs, so forgive me if I’m skeptical once again for this one. Still, early reception was stronger for this than Eastwood’s last, and maybe him being behind the camera instead of in front of it will allow him to focus more on framing and shot selection. He definitely has a fanbase that’s itching to elevate anything solid he makes, and if this film is even passable it could pull an American Sniper and slip into the biggest category of the night.
19. Hustlers (NR)
It seems I am still underestimating this little number, which continues to generate hype and refuses to let the conversation die. JLo is looking like a lock for a Supporting Actress nomination, but the film’s many fans want a whole lot more, eyeballing the Screenplay and Picture categories. Distributor STX has never launched a successful awards campaign before, so I’m skeptical this can get off the ground, but I’ve been wrong on just about every other metric about this film so don’t listen to me. I’ll have a big eye on its Globes performance next month to determine what its chances are.
20. A Hidden Life (-3)
I’m still stubbornly keeping this film around in my power rankings, even though its odds remain slim. It snared a random FISA Best Picture nomination, indicating that people DO still have the film on their minds, and its subject matter is right up the Academy’s wheelhouse. It could randomly sneak into some categories like Cold War did last year, or overperform even more like Phantom Thread the year before. Unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
Notable Power Rankings Drop-Outs:
- The Report: Amazon is foregoing a traditional theatrical release and dumping it on their streaming service. If that isn’t waving the white flag, I don’t know what is.
- Dark Waters: Came out too late and failed to build enough buzz. DOA.
- Just Mercy: The conversation is all but completely dead for this biopic, and unless it magically blows out the box office around Christmastime, we can kiss it goodbye.
- Cats: The film needs a strong showing at the Globes to have any chance, and the fact that it could miss the deadline entirely is close to a death knell.
- Waves: Underperforming on the independent awards circuit is basically game over. The Academy won’t touch this, besides maybe an acting nom or two.
- The Lighthouse: Too weird and esoteric for the Academy. Even Dafoe is gonna struggle to gain traction in such a crowded year.
FINAL NOVEMBER PREDICTIONS:
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The Irishman
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Marriage Story
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Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
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Parasite
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Jojo Rabbit
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Joker
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1917
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Ford v Ferrari
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Bombshell
What are your Best Picture predictions this year? What films am I over/underrating? I’ll be back after the Globes nominations for the December edition, then a final January edition shortly before the Oscar nominations are announced. See you then!
-Austin Daniel
All image rights belong to their respective distributors and AMPAS.
Scriptophile 